Progress Report
Political scene: What will 2020 bring?
BY ARTHUR SCHWARTZ
We all know that 2020 will be
a watershed year in national
politics. The unthinkably
monstrous, racist, sexist, xenophobic,
grandiose thing in the White House is
so ripe for a challenge that 25 or more
candidates are looking to be the one to
take him down.
And in the run-up to that election,
the Democratic primary is a test of
whether Democratic Party voters want
to go back to the Democratic Party of
2008-16 , or want to move forward to
become the party at fi rst envisioned by
Bernie Sanders in 2016, advanced by
The Squad, and refl ected in a push for
Medicare for All, a Green New Deal,
tuition-free higher education, and a
genuine effort to rein in the 1%.
That confl ict is already playing itself
out in Villager-land. The eastern part
of Greenwich Village and Chelsea is
represented in Congress by a relic of
the past, of the Democratic Party of
Bill Clinton, named Carolyn Maloney.
Her district was once called the Silk-
Stocking District, and when she was
elected was entirely on the East Side
COURTESY ARTHUR SCHWARTZ
District Leader Arthur Schwartz, left, was Bernie Sanders’s New York
2016 campaign counsel.
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of Manhattan, from 96th St. down to
Loisaida.
But several rounds of redistricting
have created a district that includes
Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Long Island
City and Astoria, areas in Brooklyn and
Queens that include increasing numbers
of millennials, and many people of
color. Since 2010 Carolyn has faced a
series of challengers, and in 2016 her
opponent, Suraj Patel, got 41 percent of
the vote, winning on the eastern side of
the East River. That was the same 2016
primary that saw Alexandria Ocascio-
Cortez beat 20-year incumbent Joe
Crowley, the Queens Boss.
The result is that there are around
six candidates lined up to be the one
to take on Maloney in the June 2020
primary. They all know that only one
needs to be in the arena next June if
Carolyn is to be defeated.
One local pol recently said to me,
“Carolyn needs to fi gure out a dignifi
ed exit,” yet she seems to be diving
headfi rst into a campaign in which she
will be buffeted because of her often
Bill Clintonesque politics in a Bernie
Sanders-Elizabeth Warren-AOC world.
She is a big free-trader (the only New
York congressmember who voted for
NAFTA), a hawk on U.S. foreign policy,
and a large recipient of corporate
money. My bet is on Lauren Ashcraft to
be her main opponent next year.
“Who?” you say. Lauren is a candidate
who comes out of that same group
of activists who backed AOC’s campaign,
and almost propelled Tiffany
Caban to the district attorney’s offi ce
in Queens. She is 30 years old, a JP
Morgan Chase compliance offi cer, and
a standup comic.
She is the daughter of an immigrant
father, and a granddaughter of an individual
with serious disabilities; she is a
genuinely impassioned advocate for the
immigrant community, and for expansion
of the Americans With Disabilities
Act.
Ashcraft knows a lot about the banking
system and that she wants none of
their money. And her activist crew is
already going door to door, more than
10 months before the primary. And she
is a Bernie-sis, while Carolyn has endorsed
Kirsten Gillibrand. It will be a
race to watch.
(In another congressional race, Jerry
Nadler will have a well-funded primary
opponent, who comes from Andrew
Cuomo-world, but Jerry, I believe, is an
unbeatable folk hero.)
The New York State Legislature is
in for another round of high-profi le
challenges like the state Senate had
last year. But this time it will be assemblymembers,
since the Assembly
blocked many progressive pieces of legislation
this year that had been adopted
by the Senate.
My prediction? Assemblymember
Deborah Glick, who has been around
even longer than Carolyn, will have
a very serious opponent. (It won’t be
me.) She had a serious break with
many L.G.B.T. activists by blocking a
surrogacy bill that was proposed by her
usual ally Senator Brad Hoylman. There
is a PAC in formation that already has
$150,000 pledged to help bring about
her defeat. Several people are auditioning
to take her on.
The other interesting thing to watch
will be alignment of Downtown electeds
with presidential candidates. The
New York primary will be the last Tuesday
in April, and with a multicandidate
fi eld, it will matter a lot.
Few local elected offi cials have
aligned, but many will decide before
petitioning begins in January, if they
are looking to secure a place at the
Democratic Convention. Pete Buttigieg
is a conundrum for some; he is an
L.G.B.T. breakthrough, but he seems to
be fading already. A candidate needs 15
percent of the vote to get any delegates
in New York and it is unlikely that he
will get there.
It will be an interesting year, even before
the November fi nale.
Schwartz is the male Democratic
district leader for Greenwich Village.
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16 August 8, 2019 TVG Schneps Media