Caribbean exports will fall 2.0 percent in 2019
By Nelson A. King
The United Nations’ Economic
Commission for Latin
American and the Caribbean
(ECLAC) predicts that exports
from the region will fall 2.0 percent
in 2019 “due to the complex
international context.”
“The marked deceleration
that international trade in
goods has experienced this decade,
and which has deepened
since late 2018, will negatively
affect Latin America and the
Caribbean’s foreign trade performance
in 2019,” said ECLAC
in a new annual report released
on Tuesday, at a press conference
in Mexico City, led by
its Executive Secretary, Alicia
Bárcena.
According to the United
Nations regional organization,
the value of regional exports
and imports of goods is projected
to drop -2.0 percent and
-3.0 percent, respectively, “in
a complex international context
characterized by factors
including the exacerbation of
trade tensions, lower global
demand, the growing substitution
of imports with national
production in some economies,
the lower proportion of Chinese
production that is bound
for export, the retreat of global
value chains, and the irruption
of new technologies that
impact on the very nature of
trade.”
In its report, “International
Trade Outlook for Latin America
and the Caribbean 2019,”
ECLAC said that the region’s
trade performance shows “significant
heterogeneity by subregion,”
with South America
experiencing a -6.7 percent
contraction in the value of its
shipments, “far steeper than
the regional average.”
“This reflects the economic
stagnation faced by the subregion
– with growth projected
at just 0.2 percent in 2019,
which negatively affects intraregional
trade – and the heft
that basic products have in its
export basket, with prices for
several of these having fallen,”
ECLAC said.
It estimated that only three
South American countries
(Argentina, Ecuador and Uruguay)
will see the value of their
shipments rise in 2019, driven
by higher volume in their
exports of basic products.
In contrast, ECLAC said
Caribbean L 26 ife, November 8-14, 2019 BQ
Central America, the Caribbean
and Mexico will experience
increases in the value of
their exports – 2.6 percent,
3.7 percent and 2.8 percent,
respectively.
“This is indicative of their
lower dependence on basic
products and their greater trade
ties to the United States, whose
demand for imports has shown
more resilience than that of
the region’s other main export
markets,” ECLAC said.
The report states that weakened
demand in a regional context
of very low growth has hit
intraregional trade especially
hard.
“It is estimated that the
value of intraregional trade
will contract by almost 10 percent
in 2019, in contrast to the
value of shipments to the rest
of the world, which is expected
to hold steady at around 0 percent,”
ECLAC said.
“This is especially serious
given that intraregional trade
has a far bigger manufacturing
component than that of
exports to other markets, and
also due to its great importance
for SMEs that export,” the document
says.
In her presentation, Bárcena
said: “This panorama forces us
to rethink strategies for the
region’s international insertion
and put more effort into promoting
intraregional trade.”
In the “International Trade
Outlook for Latin America and
the Caribbean 2019,” ECLAC
also analyzed the contribution
of trade to environmental sustainability.
According to the report,
international trade and the
production associated with it
have both positive and negative
effects on climate change.
Furthermore, their respective
regulatory frameworks
are interdependent, the report
says.
It adds that the carbon
footprint of exports from the
region’s countries that are
intensive in natural resources
is similar to that of other countries
with comparable export
profiles.
Alicia Bárcena (center), ECLAC Executive Secretary, during
the presentation of the report in Mexico City.
ECLAC Mexico / Jorge Ronzón
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